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Studs and Duds Fantasy Football
Many experts would have you think that there are magical stud and dud players.
There are no magical players and if there were then it wouldn't matter much because
most of a player's future doesn't depend upon the player themselves. Any player
projection and certainly Robocoach’s
predictions should be based upon the following.
- Your scoring system
- Prior Performance (of the position, e.g., RB1)
- Opponent Strength
- Depth Chart Position (2nd stringers aren't as good as 1st)
- Your League Setup (# starters per pos., scarcity based)
- Prior Performance against Oppoent (by that player-position against that team, if applicable)
- Coaching Strategy (described below)
- Risk of Injury (some players are more likely than others)
Note, only the last factor is specifically player related! Only one out of eight factors
or a tiny thirteen percent of a fantasy prediction depends on the player!
Even prior performance is predicted based upon a baseline for the player position (role)
not the player. The baseline is sometimes less important when a tier 1 player drops in or out.
The baseline does need to be adjusted, that true, but it's not irrelevant.
Robocoach thinks studs and duds aren’t players, they are literal strategies that coaches devise. That might sound crazy because what coach would implement a dud strategy, right?
They do it all the time, for example, when the salary cap is a factor and they let a stud go. That is equivalent to saying we’re going to start a dud, relatively speaking, at that position. Sometimes the dud strategy is a risk taken by the coach when they choose to have an incompetent backup at a high impact postition like RB. Almost no RBs finish all the season's games, its just not done anymore, you need a quality backup. On the flip side of the dud backup is when the stud returns. When a tier one player comes back from injury, then that is the stud strategy. We hope you agree the stud/dud isn’t something that just happens...it IS a coaching STRATEGY.
RBBC Running Back By Committee This is similar to studs and duds as it's also a coaching strategy. The coaches say ‘this guy can take the whole workload.’ That’s out-of-committee and again, it's not some player, in stud fashion, suddenly exceeding the baseline for weeks at a time. It's the coaches deciding to feed one guy the touches that used to go to the committee. Conversely, when the touches go from one guy to two guys you’re in-a-committee, not dud-ness.
There are examples, some would point to players exceeding the position baseline for extended periods. If you take a closer look, however, it didn’t just happen. The coaches made it happen. Players are given the spots and don't have to share the workload in a committee. Mostly it's announced by the coaches saying we’re going to distribute the touches evenly. Sometimes it's announced indirectly when the coaches lose someone in a committee and don’t replace him. One way Robocoach detects it is by the human ADP vs. Robocoach ADP difference. Robo sees when people are overrating or underrating a player. That’s an indication of committeeness or injury. Once detected, Robocoach applies a in-out RBBC adjustment to the player projection.
There is another kind of RBBC, I call it Strangelove BC. Essentially, it’s status quo by committee, that is, the committee has gone on so long that no manual adjustment of touches need happen. These are the Strangelove players, or 'how I learned to love the committee' players as what you see is what you get and there's no need to adjust your expectations.
Robocoach thinks studs and duds aren’t players, they are literal strategies that coaches devise. That might sound crazy because what coach would implement a dud strategy, right?
They do it all the time, for example, when the salary cap is a factor and they let a stud go. That is equivalent to saying we’re going to start a dud, relatively speaking, at that position. Sometimes the dud strategy is a risk taken by the coach when they choose to have an incompetent backup at a high impact postition like RB. Almost no RBs finish all the season's games, its just not done anymore, you need a quality backup. On the flip side of the dud backup is when the stud returns. When a tier one player comes back from injury, then that is the stud strategy. We hope you agree the stud/dud isn’t something that just happens...it IS a coaching STRATEGY.
RBBC Running Back By Committee This is similar to studs and duds as it's also a coaching strategy. The coaches say ‘this guy can take the whole workload.’ That’s out-of-committee and again, it's not some player, in stud fashion, suddenly exceeding the baseline for weeks at a time. It's the coaches deciding to feed one guy the touches that used to go to the committee. Conversely, when the touches go from one guy to two guys you’re in-a-committee, not dud-ness.
There are examples, some would point to players exceeding the position baseline for extended periods. If you take a closer look, however, it didn’t just happen. The coaches made it happen. Players are given the spots and don't have to share the workload in a committee. Mostly it's announced by the coaches saying we’re going to distribute the touches evenly. Sometimes it's announced indirectly when the coaches lose someone in a committee and don’t replace him. One way Robocoach detects it is by the human ADP vs. Robocoach ADP difference. Robo sees when people are overrating or underrating a player. That’s an indication of committeeness or injury. Once detected, Robocoach applies a in-out RBBC adjustment to the player projection.
There is another kind of RBBC, I call it Strangelove BC. Essentially, it’s status quo by committee, that is, the committee has gone on so long that no manual adjustment of touches need happen. These are the Strangelove players, or 'how I learned to love the committee' players as what you see is what you get and there's no need to adjust your expectations.
Injury Risk
This is the one factor, of the eight discussed above, that is player specific.
Here are a few proven facts: overwork correlates with injuries.
Injuries correlate with injuries. Think of the players that drive you crazy--the
ones who try to play through injuries. They play in 10 to 13 games, but they are
questionable and or doubtful often. Then there are the players who play in only a
handful of games but keep saying they’ll be back. Robocoach downgrades these
infuriating players. They’ve done it before and it is scientifically proven
they will do it again. You could just as easily call it the 'About to be Injured' players.
Protect yourself with handcuffs and don't reach for the players shown below.
2022 Outlook
Studs
- Russell Wilson
- Christian McCaffrey
- Tyreek Hill
As a stud McCaffery pops up to the top ten. He’d be in the 30 to 40 range if he
followed the Carolina RB1 baseline from 2021. He’d be #1 if not for his injury history.
Russell Wilson is a huge upgrade in Denver and will blow away the baseline.
The baseline is so low, however, that Russell still can't pop it to the top tier of offenses.
Duds
And these are the duds- Tyler Lockett
- Gino Smith
That’s it. So far only Seattle has said, “I’m going to start a dud.”
These players will underperform the baseline significantly.
The Seahawks could have grabbed a better QB off free agency, but they didn’t.
It's a dud strategy, plain and simple.
As you can see above, there is nothing mysterious about picking studs and duds. A dud strategy by the coach is perhaps because of good reasons, like the spending cap. A stud strategy is also plain to see.
There are other players that will probably exceed expectations. They aren't studs as they haven't changed, you have. I call these stop-the-hate players as they will exceed current expectations.
RB - if they avoid RBBC
QB
WR-TE
There are other players that will probably won't achieve expectations. I call these too-much-love player as you need curb your enthusiasm.
RB Watch for RBBC
QB
WR
As you can see above, there is nothing mysterious about picking studs and duds. A dud strategy by the coach is perhaps because of good reasons, like the spending cap. A stud strategy is also plain to see.
Stop the Hate
There are other players that will probably exceed expectations. They aren't studs as they haven't changed, you have. I call these stop-the-hate players as they will exceed current expectations.
RB - if they avoid RBBC
- Nick Chubb
- Elijah Mitchell
- Miles Sanders
- Josh Jacobs
QB
- Aaron Rodgers
- Kirk Cousins
- Derek Carr
- Kyler Murray
- Ryan Tannehill
WR-TE
- Allen Lazard
- Juju Smith-Schuster
- Bryan Edwards
- Robert Woods
- Cameron Brate and Adam Trautman
Too Much Love
There are other players that will probably won't achieve expectations. I call these too-much-love player as you need curb your enthusiasm.
RB Watch for RBBC
- Austin Ekeler
- Joe Mixon
- Cam Akers
- Zeke Elliott
- Saquon Barkley
- Kareem Hunt
- James Robinson and Nyheim Hines
QB
- Patrick Mahomes
- Josh Allen
- Justin Herbert
- Joe Burrow
- Jalen Hurts
- Matt Stafford
WR
- Michael Pittman
- Michael Thomas
- DJ Moore
- AJ Brown
- Terry McLaurin
- Matt Stafford
In and Out of Committee
Strangelove
RBBC is the status quo, learn to love it here. This was a huge advantage last year, Taylor was a StrangeLove player last year. However, last year might be the last time you'll be able to take advantage of Strangelove as nearly every team is in committee and more importantly, fantasy players are increasingly OK with it, not staying away and not downgrading.
- No StrangeLove in 2022!
Newly In Committee
- Kansas City
- Denver
Out of Committee
No teams our OOC this year, so far. Be on the lookout because Taylor like players emerge from the committees.
- None
Injury Downgrades
If there is one thing that affects your fantasy team the most its Injuries. Protect yourself with handcuffs and don't reach for the players shown below.
RB 10-20% Downgrade
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Leonard Fournette
- James Conner
- Nick Chubb
- David Montgomery
- Javonte Williams
- Saquon Barkley
- Aaron Jones
- Dandre Swift
- Dalvin Cook
- Joe Mixon
- Jonathan Taylor
- Christian Mccaffrey
- Austin Ekeler
- Derrick Henry
Group 2: Some RBs don’t get injured at all and play in every game. You’d think this is good,
but it's not. They’ve dodged a lot of bullets and eventually they’ll get hit. The downgrade is less severe than group 1, about 5%-10%.
- Harris, Najee
WR-TE 10-20% Downgrade
- Mike Evans
- Deebo Samuel
- Tyreek Hill
- A.j. Brown
- Keenan Allen
- Ceedee Lamb
- Tee Higgins
- Kyle Pitts
Group 2: Some WR-TEs get downgraded for playing every game without getting injured, just like the RBs. This downgrade isnt as severe. The competition is closing in and eventually the injury comes.
- Davante Adams
- Michael Pittman
- Justin Jefferson
- Ja'marr Chase
- Stefon Diggs
- Cooper Kupp
- Mark Andrews
- Travis Kelce
QB 10-20% Downgrade
- Josh Allen
- Justin Herbert
- Lamar Jackson
- Jalen Hurts
Group 2: QBs are also downgraded for playing every game without getting injured.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Tom Brady
2021 Outlook
Studs
- McCaffery
- Burrow
- Kittle
- Barkley
- Mixon
As a stud McCaffery pops up to the top ten. He’d be in the 30 to 40 range if he followed the Carolina RB1 baseline from 2020. He’d be even higher if not for his injury history, but I’ll discuss that below.
Duds
And these are the duds- James Winston
- Tyrell Williams, WR1 Det
That’s it. So far only two coaches have said, “I’m going to start a dud.” The Saints are going with Jameis Winston and Jameis, relatively speaking, is no Drew Brees. He will underperform the baseline significantly. You have to think of the position as the baseline, not Jameis’s performance as a Buc as the baseline. This is because the Saints offense still is there and with or without Brees it will do what it does, albeit a bit worse. The Saints could have grabbed a better QB off free agency, but they didn’t. It's a dud strategy, plain and simple.
As you can see, there is nothing mysterious about picking studs and duds. A dud strategy by the coach is perhaps because of good reasons, like the spending cap. A stud strategy is also plain to see.
As you can see, there is nothing mysterious about picking studs and duds. A dud strategy by the coach is perhaps because of good reasons, like the spending cap. A stud strategy is also plain to see.
In and Out of Committee
This is similar to studs and duds as it's also a coaching strategy. The coaches say ‘this guy can take the whole workload.’ That’s out-of-committee and again, it's not some player, in stud fashion, suddenly exceeding the baseline for weeks at a time. It's the coaches deciding to feed one guy the touches that used to go to the committee. Conversely, when the touches go from one guy to two guys you’re in-a-committee.
There are examples, some would point to players exceeding the position baseline for extended periods. Two big examples from 2020 would be Theilen and Robinson. If you take a closer look, however, it didn’t just happen. The coaches made it happen. Both players were given the spots and didn't have to share the workload in a committee.
So, who’s coming in and out of committee. Mostly it's announced by the coaches saying we’re going to distribute the touches evenly. Sometimes it's announced indirectly when the coaches lose someone in a committee and don’t replace him. One way Robocoach detects it is by the human ADP vs. Robocoach ADP difference. Robo sees when people are overrating or underrating a player. That’s an indication of committeeness or injury. Once detected, Robocoach adjusts the player projection.
For example, see David Montgomery above in my pre-adjusted PPR Robocoach cheatsheet. His delta is high, indicating Robocoach thinks he’s better than his ADP. Why is that? Committeeness, as I’ll explain below.
If you click through on Montgomery, the first news listed is that the coaches are going to start sharing the touches more at RB so, it's committee time. Robo adds Montgomery to the committee list and a committee projection adjustment takes place.
Alternatively, in the same image above, you’ll see that Johnathan Taylor is significantly above his ADP. That's because he's in a committee, but he won’t get the committee adjustment. The coaches say he’s going to be in a committee so you’d think that Robocoach would downgrade his projection, but not so fast. Robo knows that Indy’s been in committee for a long time, so the baseline doesn’t need to be adjusted. Taylor will exceed expectations not because he’s a stud, but because everybody is overreacting to the committee ‘news.’ It's not news at all, it’s status quo, the hate has gone too far. These are the Strangelove players, or 'how I learned to love the committee' players.
There are examples, some would point to players exceeding the position baseline for extended periods. Two big examples from 2020 would be Theilen and Robinson. If you take a closer look, however, it didn’t just happen. The coaches made it happen. Both players were given the spots and didn't have to share the workload in a committee.
So, who’s coming in and out of committee. Mostly it's announced by the coaches saying we’re going to distribute the touches evenly. Sometimes it's announced indirectly when the coaches lose someone in a committee and don’t replace him. One way Robocoach detects it is by the human ADP vs. Robocoach ADP difference. Robo sees when people are overrating or underrating a player. That’s an indication of committeeness or injury. Once detected, Robocoach adjusts the player projection.
For example, see David Montgomery above in my pre-adjusted PPR Robocoach cheatsheet. His delta is high, indicating Robocoach thinks he’s better than his ADP. Why is that? Committeeness, as I’ll explain below.
If you click through on Montgomery, the first news listed is that the coaches are going to start sharing the touches more at RB so, it's committee time. Robo adds Montgomery to the committee list and a committee projection adjustment takes place.
Alternatively, in the same image above, you’ll see that Johnathan Taylor is significantly above his ADP. That's because he's in a committee, but he won’t get the committee adjustment. The coaches say he’s going to be in a committee so you’d think that Robocoach would downgrade his projection, but not so fast. Robo knows that Indy’s been in committee for a long time, so the baseline doesn’t need to be adjusted. Taylor will exceed expectations not because he’s a stud, but because everybody is overreacting to the committee ‘news.’ It's not news at all, it’s status quo, the hate has gone too far. These are the Strangelove players, or 'how I learned to love the committee' players.
Strangelove
- Indianapolis: Taylor
- Baltimore: Dobbins
- Cleveland: Chubb
- Damien Harris
Newly In Committee
- Houston: Lindsay
- Raiders: Jacobs
- Chicago: Montgomery
- Philadelphia: Sanders
- Denver: Gordon
- Jax: Robinson
- Arizona: Edmunds
- San Fran: Mostert
Out of Committee
No team is clearly coming out of committee, but keep an eye on the following:
- Jacksonville
- Baltimore
Injury Risk
This is the one factor, of the eight discussed above, that is player specific. Here are a few proven facts: overwork correlates with injuries. Injuries correlate with injuries. Think of the players that drive you crazy--the ones who try to play through injuries. They play in 10 to 13 games, but they are questionable and or doubtful often. Then there are the players who play in only a handful of games but keep saying they’ll be back. Robocoach downgrades these infuriating players. They’ve done it before and it is scientifically proven they will do it again. Below are the injury downgrades list, but you could just as easily call it the 'About to be Injured' List.
Injury Downgrades
RB
- Swift, Dandre
- Carson, Chris
- Ekeler, Austin
- Mccaffrey, Christian
- Mixon, Joe
- Gibson, Antonio
- Edwards-helaire, Clyde
- Cook, Dalvin
- Jones, Aaron
- Sanders, Miles
- Montgomery, David
- Henderson, Darrell
Some RBs don’t get injured at all and play in every game. You’d think this is good, but it's not. They’ve dodged a lot of bullets and eventually they’ll get hit.
- Kamara, Alvin
- Henry, Derrick
- Elliott, Ezekiel
WR
- Ridley, Calvin
- Brown, A.j.
- Mclaurin, Terry
- Diggs, Stefon
- Adams, Davante
- Robinson, Allen
- Hopkins, Deandre
- Allen, Keenan
TE
- Kittle, George
QB
- Wilson, Russell
- Murray, Kyler
- Mahomes, Patrick
- Allen, Josh
- Jackson, Lamar
- Prescott, Dak